The innocence of that summer is touching to recall now. In a far-off past called 2024, when Britain elected a Labour government, optimists made the bull case for the country. Emmanuel Macron had budget troubles in France and Germany a recession, so the UK struck them as a relative haven. (As though there were three countries on Earth to invest in.) Instead of constant Tory paranoia about a bond market revolt, there would be people in charge willing at last to borrow to spend. (There soon followed a bond market revolt.) “Britain is back, and the world wants a piece” is one of the headlines that have aged like milk.

Bull, indeed. We now know that British output shrank in January. This is before the government’s tax increases and regulations on employers become law. As ever, smart people let well-founded distaste for the Conservatives tip over into astounding naivety about their opponents. It wouldn’t matter, except Britain’s problems are Europe’s in miniature: not enough growth, so not enough fiscal revenue, so not enough defence spending, at least without sacrifices elsewhere, for which there is not enough public support.

Perhaps, then, we should hold off on the idea that, as one un-prescient official said during the 1990s Balkan crises: “This is the hour of Europe.” A triumphal note has crept in of late, which posits that Donald Trump’s betrayal of the continent is proving to be the making of it. This is based on — what?