The idea that global trade is back to an era of great powers and geopolitics is now firmly entrenched in policymakers’ minds. Given the energy shock from the Ukraine war, the demand for critical minerals for the green transition and the fragility of agricultural production, there’s a specific fear that the world economy is being fragmented in a zero-sum battle for scarce raw materials and food.Now, it’s certainly possible to scare yourself thinking about the risks to global prosperity of a new cold war between rival blocs centred on Washington and Beijing. But past experience and present observation suggest strategic attempts to corner commodity markets are often countered by adaptable companies and pragmatic governments.
如今，有一種觀點在政策制定者腦海中已經根深蒂固：全球貿易正在回到由大國和地緣政治主導的時代。考慮到烏克蘭戰爭帶來的能源沖擊、綠色轉型對關鍵礦產的需求以及農業生產的脆弱性，人們尤其擔心，世界經濟會在一場爭奪稀缺原材料和食品的零和斗爭中變得支離破碎。