The writer is head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets strategy research at Goldman SachsIt might seem counter-intuitive that there has been a bull market in emerging market currencies against the backdrop of one of the most aggressive rate increase cycles by major central banks. But that is what we have seen and this bull market is likely to extend.
Views of EM performance reflect two common misperceptions. First, they are often coloured by the stories that make it to the top of your news feed — the meltdown in the Turkish lira or the triple-digit-plus inflation in Argentina. These are undoubtedly important developments in what are large emerging economies, but for the past several years, they have barely been representative of the trends across the EM mainstream. More importantly, they make up an insignificant share of most active investor portfolios.
Second, currency performance and broad EM index benchmarks are typically measured against the dollar. As the dollar has unquestionably had a strong run for the past couple of years, EM currency performance, as with that of almost every other currency, tends to look less flattering by comparison. But that is more a statement about the dollar.