It was not familiar economic forces that caused the upheavals of recent years, but Covid and the war in Ukraine. This reminds us that the most destructive forces we know are indifferent nature and wicked humanity. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF stresses the “cost of living crisis” and the economic slowdown in China. Yet the policy response to Covid, the unbalanced recovery from that disease and Vladimir Putin’s war caused the former, while China’s response to Covid caused the latter. Disease and war have indeed shaken our world.

These huge surprises have also reminded us that it is impossible to forecast the economy. Often more illuminating is examination of how forecasts evolve. In this case, one can summarise the changes from previous forecasts quite simply: “Just about everything that could go wrong has.” In “fund-speak”, “downside risks” have materialised.

What were those downside risks?