Whoever becomes the leader in artificial intelligence “will become the ruler of the world”, Vladimir Putin said in 2017, predicting future wars would be fought using drones. Even then, for all the Russian leader’s own ambitions, China and the US were the frontrunners in developing the technology. Yet four years later, the vision of autonomous fighting units is becoming a reality, with potentially devastating consequences. The computer scientist Stuart Russell — who will devote a forthcoming Reith Lecture on BBC radio to the subject — met UK defence officials recently to warn that incorporating AI into weapons could wipe out humanity.
AI promises enormous benefits. Yet, like nuclear power, it can be used for good and ill. Its introduction into the military sphere represents the biggest technological leap since the advent of nuclear weapons. While atomic bombs were used on real cities in 1945, however, it took more than two decades before the first arms control treaties were signed.
Nuclear weapons are also difficult and expensive to develop or obtain. By contrast, AI-aided arms — used at scale — could combine the power of weapons of mass destruction with the scope for cheap production of the AK-47. That opens the possibility of their use, even if not in their most sophisticated forms, not just by advanced economies but by “rogue” states and terrorists. And the world is starting to wrestle with how to control them while the technology is still evolving at lightning speed.