How are we to assess the outcome of COP26 in Glasgow? It would be reasonable to conclude that it was both triumph and disaster — triumph, in that some notable steps forward have been taken, and disaster, in that they fall far short of what is needed. It remains very doubtful whether our divided world can muster the will to tackle this challenge in the time left before the damage becomes unmanageable.

Climate Action Tracker has provided a helpful summary of where we are: on current policies and actions, the world is set for a median increase in temperature of 2.7C above pre-industrial levels; with the targets for 2030 alone, this would fall to 2.4C; Full implementation of all submitted and binding targets would deliver 2.1C; and, finally, implementation of all announced targets would deliver 1.8C. Thus, if the world delivered everything it now indicates we would be close to the recommended ceiling of a rise of 1.5C. (See charts.)

Scepticism is fully justified. According to Climate Action Tracker, only the EU, UK, Chile and Costa Rica now have adequately designed net zero targets. Announced improvements in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) since September 2020 will lower the shortfall in the reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases required by 2030 by just 15-17 per cent. More than half of this reduction in NDCs comes from the US, whose future policies are, to put it mildly, uncertain. New sectoral initiatives will lower 2020’s shortfall in the reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases by 2030 by 24-25 per cent. Announced reductions in methane emissions and deforestation would be particularly significant, if delivered. But the reduction in deforestation is doubtful. In any case, the shortfall stays large.