Japan is feeling a little like old times. Yoshihide Suga’s decision to step down as prime minister after only a year recalls the days before his predecessor Shinzo Abe’s almost eight-year rule, when Japan had six premiers in six years. Many in his Liberal Democratic party, however, will quietly see Suga’s decision not to contest a leadership vote this month as a blessing. His personal popularity had sagged, while the LDP had performed poorly in local elections. With a general election looming, his party, and his country, need a different kind of leader.
The new premier, who must contest a national poll by November 30, will face a challenging agenda. The Covid-19 pandemic is far from over. Japan is still recording about 20,000 cases a day, vaccinations will take months to finish, the borders remain closed, and the economy is suffering as a result. These are just the short-term issues. Longer term, Japan must still grapple with the consequences of being the world’s oldest population, the rise of China, and the continuing struggle to sustain demand without endless fiscal stimulus.
Suga has in some ways been unlucky. He is perceived to have handled coronavirus poorly though Japan has the lowest deaths, in total and in relation to its population, of any G7 country. But he was seen as slow to respond to successive waves of infection, was forced in April to U-turn on a pledge that there would not be another state of emergency, and pressed ahead with an unpopular Olympics in the midst of a pandemic.