One clear pattern from the first 18 months of coronavirus is that each apparent certainty is overtaken by events. The latest is that the west — chiefly, the US and western Europe — is moving to post-pandemic normality. That is far from assured. As vaccination rates taper off, the goal of reaching herd immunity is bumping up against the cultural resisters. Two steps forward are followed by one back. The concern is that new mutations will outpace the west’s ability to inoculate its laggards. 

They have already caused President Joe Biden to miss his goal of 70 per cent vaccination by July 4 — the first self-imposed target he will have flunked. The White House says it will be met a few weeks later. But that could require steps Biden and the states have so far avoided for fear of inflaming the culture wars, such as mandating students to get their shots before going back to school. Similar difficulties await most European countries. The slow ones are catching up with the early adopters partly because the latter are reaching a plateau. 

The risk that the west will be forced into another winter shutdown should not be downplayed. Governments face two big challenges. The first is to navigate the age-old battle between freedom and security. Almost every western nation, not just the English-speaking ones, has opted for persuasion over coercion. Lottery tickets and free beer work better than imposing fines on the hesitant. But the rollout’s early successes are sapping momentum to win over society’s holdouts — the young, the religious and various marginalised groups.