The investment road to ruin is paved with the boasts of commodity price bulls. Acolyte Blythe Masters, former head of JPMorgan’s global commodities, turned tail and moved to a blockchain start-up. Remaining optimists await another multi-decade price supercycle. But even if post-pandemic recovery improves commodity demand, it will not spur another boom.

Over the past 120 years, there have been four extended commodity price booms, according to Capital Economics. Each had a unique driving force — two from war recoveries, one due to the Opec shock and the last from China’s rapid industrialisation. Supercycle adherents believe a combination of rising industrial demand and lack of investment in mines and oil exploration will lead to a reflationary boom in the 2020s.

Metals, agricultural and oil commodity indices have surged up to 40 per cent since last July. This partly follows a surge in green energy projects. The EU, US and China have all promised to spend big. Hydrogen projects alone could receive €30bn from the EU. Copper has rallied to eight-year highs, around $8,375 per tonne, as electric vehicles grow more popular. Glencore expects world copper demand will double by 2050 and that mine investment is insufficient.