The military coup in Myanmar is a dispiriting reversal for the cause of democracy in one of Asia’s poorest countries, and globally. The transition towards greater political freedoms over the past decade had, to be sure, been flawed and incomplete. Its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, was badly tarnished internationally by her defence of the 2017 military crackdown on Rohingya Muslims. Yet, apparently against the trend elsewhere, the country seemed one of the few where democratic progress was continuing — including in the latest parliamentary elections in November. A month into 2021 it has, for now, been stopped in its tracks.

Myanmar’s democratic transformation was always something less than the fairytale that it first appeared. When the military junta stepped down 10 years ago — the same time as Middle East leaders were being toppled in the Arab spring — the constitution drawn up in 2008 ensured the military retained a grip on power. It was guaranteed a quarter of parliamentary seats and control of the three most powerful ministries — of home affairs, defence and border affairs. For Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, elected to government in 2015, changing the constitution was pretty much impossible since it required 75 per cent support in parliament.

The international community was, rightly, preoccupied with the alleged genocide of the Rohingyas. But it gave less attention to the fragile and unfinished democratic transition still going on in the hugely complex country.