Those who predicted that 2021 would feel different from 2020 have been proven correct — but not in the way that anyone wanted. Despite the existence of several effective Covid-19 vaccines, the UK, many European countries, the US and Brazil appear headed for their darkest moments in the pandemic.

The number of people testing positive in the UK now routinely exceeds 50,000 a day. Infections are rising in London, the east of England and south-east; they are also plateauing in other regions where rates had been falling. That is despite universities and schools having been closed for the seasonal holidays. A full reopening has been delayed.

The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 is already higher than the April peak. Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a pandemic adviser, told me we are past the point at which the NHS is in danger of collapsing; parts are already buckling. Healthcare staff, the same key workers being called on to roll out the vaccines, are exhausted. Many are isolating or sick. The current tiering system is not keeping infections down.