When things cannot go on forever, they stop. And so it is with China’s support of the US dollar. Foreigners sold more than $500bn of US government bonds during the second quarter, and perhaps one-third of that was unloaded by Chinese entities. The trend is worth watching.
Ever since 2001, when China was allowed unfettered entry into the World Trade Organization, the country has played a huge behind-the-scenes role in pushing up the value of the US currency and suppressing US bond yields.
In barely two decades, China’s share of the $140tn pool of global liquidity — defined as total savings plus credit — leapt from about 6 per cent to well over 25 per cent. China invoices goods in US dollars, invests in US dollars and provides timely countercyclical boosts of fiscal and monetary policy for its dollar-hungry economy.