Governments have rightly channelled a flood of money to our coronavirus-stricken economies. In an attempt to partly sustain worker incomes and business cash flows as a quarter to a third of the economy is shut down, they are pouring never-before-seen transfers, subsidies and loan guarantees into the private sector, heralding double-digit national deficits this year.
It is now time to think just as radically about the composition of government budgets — above all the structure of taxes — as about their size.
As we slowly lift lockdowns, curtailed economic activity will begin to pick up. But the recovery will be extremely fragile, given the damage done to businesses’ solvency. At best we will see a gradual return to full activity levels and there will be deep uncertainty about what the post-Covid-19 economy will look like — except that the status quo ante will be irrevocably gone.