The economic and human devastation inflicted on Europe by the coronavirus pandemic is so severe that the survival of the eurozone and the postwar project of European integration as a whole is in peril without greater solidarity among its member states. That was the stark warning issued by French president Emmanuel Macron in an interview with the Financial Times last week. He is right. Europe, as he put it, is facing a moment of truth.
Jobs are being lost and output crushed everywhere. But the pain will be uneven. Mediterranean countries with important tourist industries may suffer longer than manufacturing economies as foreign visitors stay away in their millions this year. They also entered this crisis saddled with the legacy of the last one: high unemployment, large public debt burdens and, in some cases, weak banking sectors.
Every day reveals the economic damage and the price governments will have to pay to try to cushion the blow. Italy and Spain are already worrying about the affordability of crisis-fighting measures, spending considerably less than France or Germany. The Italian and Spanish deficits are likely to balloon since release from economic lockdown will be slow and piecemeal at best. Debt to gross domestic product ratios will soar. Italy’s will climb to 155 per cent next year, the IMF predicts. It could rocket beyond sustainable levels in the years afterwards if the economy flatlines and borrowing costs rise.