Last week, I enjoyed a city break in Istanbul with my teenage daughter. It was made even better by the fact that we were upgraded to a €1,000 room for only €250 — in large part because our hotel, which expected to be booked solid by wealthy Chinese holidaymakers, was nearly empty.

Everywhere around the city, merchants displaying “Happy Chinese New Year” signs were even more aggressive than usual in hawking their wares to passing tourists. There weren’t many of us. “It’s coronavirus,” said the concierge. “Last year around this time, we were packed. This year, nothing.”

We might be about to see something new: a global slowdown led by China, rather than the US. The past four global recessions have been triggered by American consumers. But China’s place in the global economy has grown dramatically over that time. China today accounts for about one-third of global growth, a larger share than the US, Europe and Japan combined.