Wall Street is obsessed with the game of inversion-watching right now. No wonder. Four months ago, the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds fell below that for short-term ones, creating what is known as an “ inverted yield curve”.
This sparked jitters, given that yield curve inversions preceded “seven of the last seven recessions”, with a lag of “8-60 months”, according to a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch client note.
Although the curve un-inverted this month, as the yield on 10-year bonds rose, this may not be much comfort. Wall Street lore holds that inverted curves often uninvert right before the downturn hits. Cue more jitters.
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