September has started badly for the global economy. The step up in tariffs on US imports from China at the beginning of the month and the deepening of manufacturing weakness in the US heightened concerns over the health of the world’s two largest economies. Service sectors globally remain resilient in the face of the manufacturing malaise, with the gap remaining at an unprecedented high in August. But with no imminent end to the trade war it is only a matter of time before the trade-related weakness in investment spills over into consumption.
9月份全球經濟開局不利。本月初美國對中國輸美商品關稅加碼,以及美國制造業進一步疲軟,加劇人們對世界兩個最大經濟體的健康狀況的擔憂。面對制造業的低迷,全球服務業依然保持韌性,兩者的差距在8月份仍然保持前所未有的高位。但由于貿易戰不會迅速結束,與貿易有關的投資疲弱蔓延至消費領域只是時間問題。