Generals fight the last war, and Washington’s economic war on China is straight from America’s tactics against the Soviet Union and its skirmishes with Japan in the 1980s. Yet China is neither the Soviet Union nor Japan. The US’s aggressive trade actions towards Beijing, unless suspended in the near future, will damage the world economy and America itself.

The overriding aim of US policymakers is American economic and military primacy. Though China remains far poorer than the US (roughly one-third the gross domestic product per capita at international prices), it has pulled ahead of the US in total GDP when measured at international prices and is converging or ahead on technologies such as 5G. A notable upcoming test will be China’s ability to compete with Boeing and Airbus in the market for civilian aircraft during the 2020s. My own bet is it will be able to compete.

In the future, no country will have economic primacy, neither the US nor China. China’s economy will be bigger than America’s by dint of a larger population, yet China will be no hegemon. According to the UN’s medium forecast, China’s population will decline by around 400m between now and 2100. Its population is currently 18 per cent of the world’s and 4.3 times that of America. In the UN forecast, China’s share of the world population in 2100 will be 9 per cent, and just 2.3 times that of America. By 2050, China’s median age will soar to 48 years, more senior citizen than world conqueror.