It is interesting that the strains in US-China relations have been framed around the idea of an outbreak of a trade war. I think this characterisation is incorrect. The tension over trade is just one front, or battle, in a broader conflict or war for hegemony now beginning between the US and China.

We can indeed think of various fronts or battles, including trade, cyber, defence/security (South China Sea), AI/technology (5G). But this is a war between a global superpower in decline (the US, overstretched in the Middle East) and one on the rise (China).

In the battle over trade, the market is looking for a deal on tariffs or market access to bring resolution and allow it to move on. One can imagine a US victory where, after the 90-day cooling-off period agreed at the G20, some kind of deal can be reached by which China concedes ground on trade access, or makes other efforts to rebalance its trading relationship with the US.