Nobody knows how Brexit will unfold between now and next March. It’s feasible that the UK and the EU fail to strike a deal, that Theresa May falls, that Jeremy Corbyn is elected prime minister, that Brexit is delayed, or that a second referendum is held. As the Adidas slogan says: “Impossible is nothing.” Only when you look further into the future do things become clearer. I’ve been interviewing many Brexit participants in Britain and on the continent, and have concluded that the two scenarios now being endlessly debated — Britain living under no-deal, or a second referendum killing Brexit — are almost inconceivable. Even if there’s briefly a no-deal, or a second vote is held, neither will stick. Long-term, the most likely outcome is Brino (Brexit in name only) or a very soft Brexit.
沒有人知道從現(xiàn)在到明年3年英國退歐的事情將會如何發(fā)展。英國和歐盟可能無法達成協(xié)議，特里薩?梅(Theresa May)也許會下臺，杰里米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)或許會當選英國首相，英國可能會推遲退歐，或許還會舉行第二次公投。正如阿迪達斯(Adidas)廣告語所說的那樣：“沒有不可能(Impossible is nothing)。”只有當你展望更加遙遠的未來時，事情才會變得比較清晰。我最近在采訪英國及歐洲大陸的很多退歐參與者，并得出結(jié)論，目前各方?jīng)]完沒了辯論的兩種情景——英國在無協(xié)議情況下退歐，或舉行第二次公投取消退歐——幾乎都不可想象。即便在短時間內(nèi)無協(xié)議退歐，或者舉行第二次公投，也都不會持久。長遠來看，最有可能的結(jié)局是名義退歐(Brino)，也就是很軟的退歐。