The global economy remains in the strong, synchronised upswing that has now been in place for almost two years. The latest Fulcrum nowcasts show no sign of any major slowdown in the global growth rate, which remains around 4.5 per cent, almost a full percentage point above its long term trend. Among the major blocs, the advanced economies are continuing to record growth rates that are, remarkably, 1.7 percentage points above trend, while the emerging markets are hovering around trend.
全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然保持著強(qiáng)勁的、同步的上升勢(shì)頭，這股勢(shì)頭至今已經(jīng)延續(xù)了近兩年。支點(diǎn)資產(chǎn)管理公司(Fulcrum)最新的“即時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)”(nowcast)顯示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率沒有任何的顯著放緩跡象。目前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率維持在4.5%左右，比其長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)水平高出將近一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在主要地區(qū)中，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)率仍然比趨勢(shì)水平高出1.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而新興市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)率徘徊在趨勢(shì)值附近。