China has just hosted a summit on its Belt and Road initiative, the boldest attempt at economic integration. The massive project of improved sea and land transport links stretching across the Eurasian continent from China to Europe has already lined up nearly a $1tn list of investments, no doubt with more to come. (For a taste of the projects, look up the interactive graphic the FT produced last year on some of the ports, railways, roads and gas pipelines that are part of the initiative.) Despite false starts and investment spending that is currently stalling, President Xi Jinping can safely label the Belt and Road the “project of the century”.
The summit was an attempt by China to drum up support for its plans, and no doubt to coax some co-financing out of the countries it wants to tie together with this new Silk Road. So it is a good time to ask what China, and its potential partners, should expect the Belt and Road to achieve.
One should not rely on a conventional financial return. While infrastructure can be a massive boost to economic productivity, that does not guarantee those involved a satisfactory share of the rewards. It is certainly possible to monetise transport links — and probably easier with ports and pipelines than with roads — but China’s own development finance institution reportedly expects to make losses on many of the projects.