The most distinctive characteristic of the French presidential election campaign so far has been its dramatic challenge to the French establishment. Former conservative leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé were soundly defeated in the Republican primary, while the abysmally unpopular Fran?ois Hollande was forced to withdraw from the race — the first time a sitting president has been too weak to stand for re-election. To complete the rout, prime minister Manuel Valls was pushed out of the Socialist primary by the more radical Beno?t Hamon.

This anti-incumbent surge echoes the Anglo-American insurgencies that recently produced the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump. But it also expresses a widespread French distrust of political parties, itself part of an older anti-establishment populist tradition. “Sortez les sortants” (“Kick the bums out”), the slogan of the 1950s populist politician Pierre Poujade, could well serve as the motto of the 2017 campaign.

Turbulence has now become the defining feature of the campaign. The Republicans’ candidate, Fran?ois Fillon, who at the end of 2016 looked like he was coasting to an easy victory, has become mired in a scandal after the satirical newspaper Le Canard Encha?né uncovered how he allegedly turned his parliamentary allowances into family benefits over a period of more than two decades.