Concerns about China’s ballooning debt indicators have been cycling on and off for nearly a decade. BIS put out an alert in September about China’s increasing “credit to GDP gap,” a warning that the pace was excessive relative to historical trends. Add to this worry the dependence of some banks on wholesale borrowing and re-emergence of shadow-banking and it is easy to understand why some observers have raised the possibility of a destabilising “Lehman moment.”
近10年來，對中國日益攀升的債務指標的擔憂一直在周而復始地出現(xiàn)。今年9月，國際清算銀行(BIS)就中國不斷增大的“信貸規(guī)模/GDP缺口”(Credit-to-GDP gap)發(fā)出警告，稱其增大的節(jié)奏相對于歷史趨勢過高了。加劇這種擔心的是，一些銀行依賴批發(fā)借款，而影子銀行卷土重來。因此，不難理解一些觀察人士為何提出中國出現(xiàn)破壞穩(wěn)定的“雷曼時刻”(Lehman moment)的可能性。
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