Japanese and Russian officials have been working for almost three years to organise a meaningful meeting between their leaders. But with the stakes high for both as Vladimir Putin prepares to host Shinzo Abe in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday, Moscow is already lowering expectations of progress on the issue that matters to Tokyo the most.

At the top of the agenda is a long-running dispute over the group of islands Russia calls the Kuriles and Japan the Northern Territories. But “it is hardly possible to expect imminent and serious progress” on resolving it, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, warned.

Dmitry Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center， sees Japan as a casualty of Russia’s pivot to China, which he says has put Russia on a trajectory to ever-greater dependency on Beijing while failing to give other Asian powers enough attention.