Weak productivity growth has puzzled economists and policymakers but it doesn’t seem to have hurt investors: the period 2009-2016 might even be called “the Goldilocks Slump”. Ample slack in job markets ensured little bargaining power for workers, whilst central banks battled deflationary impulses with a combination of low (or negative) rates and asset purchases. The net effect has been falling real yields and tight risk premiums.
生產(chǎn)率增長疲軟正困擾著經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和政策制定者,但似乎并未打擊投資者:2009至2016年的這段期間甚至可以被稱為“金發(fā)女孩低迷”(Goldilocks Slump)。就業(yè)市場供應(yīng)充足使得勞動者幾乎沒有議價能力,同時各大央行以低利率(甚至負(fù)利率)和購買資產(chǎn)的組合拳來對抗通縮壓力。這一切的凈效應(yīng)是實際收益率下滑和風(fēng)險溢價偏緊。