It used to be said that when the US sneezed, the world economy caught a cold. This is still true. But now the world economy also catches a cold when China sneezes. It has lost its last significant credit-fuelled engine of demand. The result is almost certain to be a further boost to the global “savings glut” or, as Lawrence Summers calls it, “secular stagnation” — the tendency for demand to be weak relative to potential supply. This has big implications for global economic risks.
過去有句話講，美國一打噴嚏，全球經濟就感冒。這句話依然正確，只是現在還要加一句：中國一打噴嚏，全球經濟也感冒。全球經濟已經失去最后一個重要的由信貸助長的需求引擎。幾乎可以肯定，這將進一步加劇全球“儲蓄過剩”，或者勞倫斯?薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)所說的“長期停滯”，即需求相對潛在供應偏向于疲軟。這對全球經濟風險有重大含義。
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