Will China’s real estate market crash? No, not in my opinion. China’s residential property market is significantly softer now. But I believe there is very little risk of a crash. House prices are stabilising in China, and are likely to rise again by the second half of this year on a year-over-year basis.

But keep in mind that because of the base effect, prices are likely to fall year-on-year at a steeper rate through much of the first half of this year, leading to a growing chorus of predictions of a housing crisis.

Official survey of new home prices in 70 cities As expected since the late September policy changes, China’s market is stabilising, but not rocketing back. Median new home prices, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have been falling on a month-on-month basis for eight consecutive months, but the pace of the decline is slowing: in December and January the median month-on-month price change was -0.4 per cent, an improvement on the -0.5 per cent fall in November, the -0.7 per cent fall in October and -1 per cent decline in September.