Forget Opec. If cartels can’t control output, they can’t control prices and in due course they fall apart, usually with a great deal of ill will in the process. The evidence of the last six months is that Opec can’t control the market — ask yourself how many Opec members want to see a price of $60 a barrel for their oil. Some in Saudi Arabia think a low price can squeeze out competing suppliers, but that feels like a justification after the fact of a fall which they can’t control. The question now is how the process of adjustment to the new price level will work.
忘掉石油輸出國組織(OPEC,中文簡稱:歐佩克)吧。如果卡特爾聯(lián)盟不能控制產(chǎn)量,它們就無法控制價格,到一定時候就會土崩瓦解,這個過程通常都伴隨著濃濃的敵意。過去6個月證明,歐佩克無法控制市場——你可以自己想想有多少歐佩克成員國愿意以每桶60美元的價格出售本國石油。有些沙特阿拉伯人認(rèn)為低價可以擠掉競爭的供應(yīng)商,但這說法看起來更像是對無法控制價格下跌的既成事實所做的辯解。現(xiàn)在的問題是,適應(yīng)新價格水平的調(diào)整過程將如何進行。