The International Monetary Fund has warned that the global recovery is precarious, as rising geopolitical tensions and the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US risk damping the outlook for global growth.

In a document prepared ahead of this week’s Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Australia, the IMF said that growth in the first half of this year was weaker than it had predicted in April. The fund signalled it was likely to cut its next batch of forecasts, which will be released in -October.

The fund’s assessment is the latest sign that mounting tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have worsened the prospects for the global economy. This week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its forecasts for 2014 growth for all large economies except India.