Barring a last minute deal with holdout creditors, Argentina will on Monday enter technical default for the second time in 15 years. But a 30-day grace period means it can still avoid formal default and most investors believe that, eventually, the country will settle in order to regain access to international markets.

Argentine “authorities continue to provide mixed signals about [their] willingness to negotiate”, said Gordian Kemen, head of Latin America fixed income research at HSBC. However, said the bank, its “base case continues to be a negotiated solution?.?.?.?[as] the costs associated with a default largely exceed the costs of a settlement”.

Monday’s deadline comes as Argentina’s 12-year legal battle with holdouts, led by NML Capital, the New York hedge fund, has entered an aggressive endgame that has also seen US regulations spill over into international markets not governed by New York law.