The only point of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable, said J K Galbraith. Economists blame most of the US’s 1 per cent shrinkage in the first quarter of this year on the harsh winter. Now that the polar vortex is over, America’s much-awaited take-off will finally happen, they say. Such is the profession’s unshakeable self-belief. For my money, I would sooner consult the star signs. Or the weather report.
經濟學家J?K?加爾布雷思(J.K. Galbraith)曾說，經濟預測的唯一意義是使占星術看起來值得尊敬。經濟學家將今年第一季度美國經濟萎縮1%的主要原因歸咎于惡劣的冬季天氣。他們指出，現在極地渦旋已經過去，美國期盼多時的經濟增速起飛終于將要到來。這是經濟學家這種職業不可撼動的自負。在我看來，我更愿意參考星座解析或者天氣預報。
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