Skittishness in global finance about the Federal Reserve’s intention to start “tapering” its asset purchases has been joined by rising angst about a credit crunch in China.
It is too early to say, but with the credit intensity of China’s slowing economic growth surging back this year to levels last seen in the 2009 credit boom, a severe credit squeeze could precipitate a big drop in investment, accentuate the downturn in growth and lead to financial and banking sector instability.
This would sour sentiment in global equity and commodity markets, strengthen the US dollar as well as accentuate capital outflows from and slower growth in emerging markets.
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