Investors have been heading for the hills over the US Federal Reserve’s warning that it may soon rein in its ultra-loose monetary policy. They may be worrying about the wrong central bank. An exit from crisis-era measures will be tricky everywhere. But most central bankers and their political masters have a clear idea of what normality they wish to return to. Not so the European Central Bank. For the euro area, it could get ugly.
The reason is the same that has plagued the eurozone since the crisis began: policy makers’ unwillingness, in Germany above all, to reconcile themselves to the logic of how a monetary union must work. German scepticism of ECB crisis-fighting measures is well known. Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, opposed “outright monetary transactions” – the ECB’s pledge to buy crisis-hit governments’ bonds to end fears of a euro break-up.
Hawkishness from the eurozone’s largest member explains why the ECB has not been as accommodating as it should have been, given a recession and stagnant bank credit.