When Wall Street predicts something will happen in Washington, it is often wise to bet on the opposite. Multiple polls show Janet Yellen, vice-chair of the US Federal Reserve, as the strong favourite to be named Ben Bernanke’s replacement as chair – an announcement that is likely by September.

Such certainty is puzzling: there is no evidence President Barack Obama sees Ms Yellen as a shoo-in. Nor does his likely shortlist – which includes two former Treasury secretaries, Larry Summers and Tim Geithner; and a former vice-chairman of the Fed, Donald Kohn – suggest Ms Yellen as the inescapable choice. Each is an impressive name, as are possible outsiders such as Stanley Fischer, governor of the Bank of Israel (who holds dual nationality). Mr Obama has a deep bench from which to choose.

It is my bet he will settle on Mr Summers. The case for Ms Yellen is strong. Her economic credentials are a match for anyone’s, including Mr Summers. Having been head of the San Francisco Fed, her central bank experience is also deep. Yet Ms Yellen has a reputation as dove at a time when the cycle may be close to turning. By next January, when Mr Bernanke’s successor takes over, the long phase of monetary easing is likely to be tapering off. Last week, Mr Bernanke assured Congress that the monthly $85bn of asset purchases in the third round of quantitative easing would continue as long as there was any question about the US recovery. Such doubt grows a little weaker with each Fed meeting. The US economy is picking up speed.