Everyone has a favourite way of telling when bubbles are forming. Tried-and-tested examples include when Japanese groups buy golf courses, when new media buy old and when banks rush to lend to the uncreditworthy. Now Thailand is adding its own: when the country’s largest convenience store owner undertakes the biggest domestic deal to date buying the country’s largest cash and carry operator. Betting on Thailand’s rising income levels is one thing. But paying $6.6bn – an aisle-busting 53 times last year’s earnings, or 44 times expected 2013 profits – is just too much.
每個(gè)人都有自己最喜歡的方式來判斷泡沫正在形成。久經(jīng)驗(yàn)證的例子包括:日本集團(tuán)收購高爾夫球場(chǎng)、新媒體收購老牌媒體,以及銀行爭(zhēng)先向信用不佳者放貸。現(xiàn)在泰國(guó)也貢獻(xiàn)了自己的方式:該國(guó)最大的便利商店所有者發(fā)起迄今最大一筆國(guó)內(nèi)交易,擬收購該國(guó)最大的現(xiàn)購自運(yùn)經(jīng)營(yíng)商。押注泰國(guó)日益增長(zhǎng)的收入水平是一回事。但支付66億美元(相當(dāng)于去年利潤(rùn)的53倍、2013年預(yù)期利潤(rùn)44倍的驚人價(jià)格)實(shí)在是太多了。