The EU is in an era of transformation. Meanwhile, the UK – or perhaps just England – is moving towards exit. The eurozone is being forced towards “more Europe”, while the UK wants less Europe. The sensible option for the UK is to wait to see what happens. But its politicians may be unwilling, or not allowed, to be patient. Its partners are then likely to lose patience, too. Divorce may seem the better outcome, for both.

The UK has never been an enthusiastic member. When Harold Macmillan sought to join what became the EU, half a century ago, he did so because he saw no alternative: he thought that if the UK could not prevent the integration of the continent, it had to join it. Charles de Gaulle vetoed the request in 1963. Many continental Europeans must now agree with the French leader that the UK is unable to be a committed member of the club.

Subsequently, in 1973, the UK joined what its people were told would be a European Economic Community. But it was always more than that. Over time, continental aspirations have become clearer and the discomfort of English Conservatives – once the more pro-European of the two big parties – greater. The UK stayed out of the currency union partly because of widely shared scepticism about the economics, but still more because of hostility to the politics. Sceptics pointed to these implications. They have been proved right on both points. And they know it.