What bank would not want a piece of a market that has doubled in six years and should repeat the feat in a further eight? That is one reason there are 300-plus foreign banks operating in China. What they must explain is their small share of the pie and their low profitability.
China’s wholesale banking revenues have doubled to Rmb1.9tn since 2006. Foreign banks, however, have less than a tenth of the onshore investment banking, securities trading and corporate lending market – and that number has not budged, according to Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. Contrast that with banks’ optimism: institutions including JPMorgan, ANZ and DBS have poured money into their China operations this year. A survey of 40 banks by PwC in the summer revealed that more than half expected 20 per cent-plus revenue growth in China in 2012, and even more forecast the same in 2015. But the bottom line, according to Oliver Wyman, is less rosy unless outsiders can cut the price of that growth. Costs take up two-thirds of the income from foreign banks’ banking platforms, compared with two-fifths at domestic banks. And costs eat up 90 per cent of their securities units, double what the top locals pay.
Stories abound in Asian financial centres of bankers criss-crossing China, providing hours of advice without a penny to show for it. Yes, relationship-building takes time. But it is time to set some targets on the pay-off between glad-handing and income. China hands will argue that a presence in the world’s second-biggest economy is essential for banks with global aims. But many business lines previously considered crucial – credit derivatives or investment banking – are turning out to be otherwise. China is growing rapidly. That does not mean every bank will increase its business or profits at anything like the same pace.