Predicting the financial crisis was a great way to make money in 2008. After the crisis, predicting government rescues was the next money-spinner. The same applies this time.

Ever since Lehman Brothers, bets on bank bailouts have been a sure-fire way to make money from senior bonds, at least for investors who can live with the extreme volatility. Those bailouts are now starting to extend beyond the banks in Europe, with PSA Peugeot Citro?npromised €7bn of state backing for new bonds issued by its financing arm from next year.

As usual, the immediate beneficiaries were existing creditors. The yields on the carmaker’s benchmark bonds fell 276 basis points last month, making the latter Europe’s best performing new issues, Société Générale calculates.