Xi Jinping, China’s heir apparent, reappeared over the weekend after a mysterious absence. But robust growth is still missing. When Mr Xi takes over as general secretary of the Communist party next month, his first task will be to deal with an economy that is slowing faster than many had expected.
Officially, growth does not look too bad. In the second quarter, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.6 per cent, well down from the double-digit levels of recent years but hardly a crisis. Yet there are signs the slowdown may have further to go. Inventories of everything from steel to sports shoes are piling up, an indication of slowing demand in the industrial and consumer sector alike. Export growth has ground to a near-halt, with shipments to Europe down 13 per cent from the same time last year. Imports are also falling. That makes 2012 reminiscent of 2008, when China put on the brakes just as the global financial system was imploding. Then, Beijing was obliged to reverse course, unleashing $585bn in spending and even more in credit-fuelled stimulus.
Lower growth is partly to be expected. The Communist party has for some time been trying to cool the property market and get a grip on inflation. Higher prices, especially for food, risked social discontent. Escalating property prices threatened an asset bubble. In its last five-year plan, the country’s planners spoke about bringing growth down to a more manageable 7 per cent.