From the bursting of the subprime bubble to the unravelling of the eurozone debt crisis, the developed world is still coming to terms with the aftermath of its credit binge. Emerging markets have looked relatively sober by comparison. But there are worrying signs that they too have begun to overindulge.
In Turkey, Brazil and Russia, private sector credit grew by more than 20 per cent over the 12 months to April. In China it rose by roughly 15 per cent. Between 2007 and 2011, Poland’s ratio of private credit to gross domestic product climbed from 32 per cent to 49 per cent.
Optimists say fast credit growth is normal in booming economies. Provided the money is channelled into useful investment, borrowing can be beneficial for long-term development. And anyway, while growth rates may be high, the stock of both public and private sector debt is much lower than in the US, western Europe or Japan.