China’s economy is slowing. Beijing confirmed as much yesterday when it cut interest rates. It must also know that May economic data due out this weekend will not be pretty. Still, policy will remain piecemeal and less stimulative than during the post-Lehman crisis, as this is not yet a hard landing. China manufactured much of this slowdown. As the first interest rate cut after five rises since 2008 shows, there is still scope to loosen policy further. And China does not need economic growth as badly as before.
中國經濟正在放緩。中國官方昨日宣布降息,證實了這一點。中國政府肯定也清楚,將于本周末公布的5月經濟數據將不會很好看。即便如此,鑒于這仍不算硬著陸,官方政策仍將是零敲碎打型的,刺激力度不如雷曼(Lehman)危機之后那段時期。此次放緩在很大程度上是中國“制造”的。正如2008年以來五次加息之后的第一次降息所顯示的,中國的政策還有進一步寬松的空間。況且中國政府不像以往那樣渴求經濟增長。