The elections in France and Greece tell us that austerity fatigue has set in. This is not surprising. For many countries no plausible exit exists from depression, deflation and despair. If the currency union were a normal fixed exchange rate arrangement, it would collapse, as did the gold standard in the 1930s and the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. The question is whether the fact that it is a monetary union will do more than delay that outcome. The last chance of bringing needed change rests on the shoulders of Fran?ois Hollande, the newly elected president of France. Mr Hollande says his mission is to give Europe “a dimension of growth and prosperity”. So can he achieve this laudable aim?
法國和希臘的選舉告訴我們，“緊縮計劃疲勞癥”已開始顯現(xiàn)。這并不出人意料。對于許多國家而言，看上去不存在擺脫蕭條、通縮和絕望的可信退出策略。如果歐元區(qū)這個貨幣聯(lián)盟只是一個一般的固定匯率安排機制，那么它注定會瓦解，就像金本位和布雷頓森林體系(Bretton Woods system)分別于上世紀30年代和70年代瓦解那樣。現(xiàn)在的問題是，歐元區(qū)是一個貨幣聯(lián)盟的事實，除了延緩瓦解以外，能否發(fā)揮其他作用。推動歐元區(qū)實行必要變革的最后機會，落在了法國新當選總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦?奧朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)的肩上。奧朗德表示，他的使命就是為歐洲帶來“增長和繁榮”。那么，他能否實現(xiàn)這一值得贊許的目標呢？