Beijing policymakers are coy about their intentions for liberalising China’s capital account. A blueprint for reform that emerged from the central bank last month was cast in the plausible deniability of a research report from its statistics department. But news that Beijing will extend renminbi loans to leading emerging nations suggests that China is in fact putting its money where its mouth may be.
The China Development Bank reportedly plans to strike an agreement soon with its counterparts in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, according to which they will make available loans denominated in their own currencies. The CDB currently lends mainly in US dollars. This is another concrete step – and the first since the PBOC paper was released – towards expanding renminbi settlement of China’s imports and exports. It even belongs to the second part of the PBOC’s three-phase proposal (the first is to have Chinese banks take business from western financial companies under strain).
So Beijing has clearly started out on the road to what could end up with full convertibility and ultimately reserve currency status. But the latest step, involving CDB loans, is also one of the easiest. As Beijing works to have exports invoiced in redbacks, buyers of renminbi-priced goods will quickly take up offers of renminbi financing to hedge against currency risk.