Stock markets hit new post-crisis highs this week. Cue immense excitement. Suddenly, brokers’ notes are full of projections that shares could “break out” and reclaim the pre-October 2007 peaks, before the credit crunch and the market crash. Many strategists who were bearish at the turn of the year have upped their forecasts.
The excitement, and the rally, have meaning. Markets move on what Keynes famously called “animal spirits”, and if those spirits are improving, the implications for markets are of course positive. But ultimately, does this new landmark matter? No. Indeed, to be clear, it is tenuous even to say that stocks have made a post-crisis high at all.
So what exactly is exciting the headline writers? The Dow Jones Industrial Average did indeed reach a post-crisis high; it is “flirting” with the landmark of 13,000, which is within 10 per cent of its all-time high. It is the best-known index on the planet and has a long history but, and this is a big but, it includes only 30 stocks. Its methodology is flawed; professionals barely use it. The S&P 500, to which far more money is tied, remains fractionally short of its post-crash intraday high.