Interest rates on US, German and UK government bonds have fallen to all-time lows. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are below 2 per cent, the lowest recorded since the Federal Reserve began publishing market data in 1953. Yields on the inflation-protected 10-year Treasuries are zero. These are almost incomprehensible levels, whose implications are profoundly negative. Only the anticipation of negligible demand for capital and negligible inflation – could drive rates this low. Tuesday’s International Monetary Fund report is quite correct: America and Europe are on the verge of recession.
美國、德國和英國的國債利率都已跌至歷史最低水平。10年期美國國債收益率不到2%，創(chuàng)下自美聯(lián)儲(FED) 1953年開始發(fā)布市場數(shù)據(jù)以來的新低。10年期通脹保值國債收益率為零。這幾乎是不可想象的收益率水平，帶有深刻的負(fù)面含義。只有當(dāng)市場預(yù)期資本需求和通脹水平將不值一提時，利率才可能被推低至如此水平。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)周二的報告非常正確：美國和歐洲正處在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的邊緣。