Iraq will miss its target to quadruple oil production by 2017, say senior industry executives and western officials, dealing a blow to hopes that surging output from the country would lower global oil prices by the middle of the decade.

Baghdad last year outlined its ambition to produce more than 12m barrels a day within six years, up from 2.6m b/d currently with the help of oil companies, including ExxonMobil of the US, Lukoil of Russia, the UK’s BP and Royal Dutch Shell, CNPC of China, Petronas of Malaysia and Eni of Italy.

But executives and officials have told the Financial Times that they are now convinced that the target is beyond reach because of mounting constraints in pipelines and export terminals. They believe that Iraq will soon scale down the target.