What do higher oil prices mean for Asia? Three years ago, the region got off relatively lightly from the rise in crude. But if the price of a barrel of Brent, up a quarter in the past three months, continues to grind higher, Asia may not be so fortunate this time. India, in particular, looks vulnerable. That helps to explain why emerging market stocks have underperformed as the oil price rises.

Consider four metrics: a country’s oil intensity (how much oil it takes to produce a unit of output); its energy trade balance; its current level of price inflation; and the government’s fiscal position. The first two give an indication of a country’s exposure to higher prices; the latter two suggest how much scope it has to absorb and defray them through fuel, electricity and food subsidies.

By that reckoning, Malaysia may come out best. Its oil intensity is just the wrong side of the Asian average, on BP data. But as one of only two net exporters of oil and gas in Asia, its terms of trade should benefit. Aggressive monetary tightening, moreover, has so far helped to keep inflation tamed. The fiscal picture could be prettier: this chronic