“Whereof one cannot speak, one must pass over in silence.” Thus did the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein set limits to our speech. Of the pain and anxiety of the human beings buffeted by the forces of nature, I will not write. Yet the need to assess the consequences for Japan and the rest of the world remains. It has postponed my plan to comment on the eurozone’s efforts at reform.
If any civilisation is inured to such tragedies it is Japan’s. Its people will cope. This seems certain. A bigger question is whether something more positive might emerge from the tragedy. Japan’s bickering politicians are on trial. Can they sustain the mood of national unity? If so will they use it to take Japan out of the doldrums of the past two decades?
What, then, are the economic consequences of a calamity on this scale? Most directly, it destroys wealth and disrupts the economy. Noteworthy, in this case, is the impact of the calamity on attitudes towards – and the future of – the global nuclear industry. Losses must also be shared between those directly affected and insurers, both private and public. Then will come a surge of reconstruction, which reallocates spending and, at a time of economic slack, is likely to raise it, too. The impact on spending will, in turn, affect the country’s monetary and fiscal positions and external balance.