Markets cannot help reducing an immense natural disaster to relatively small numbers. Global investors see the Japanese earthquake and tsunami as a temporary hit to the crisis-affected region accounting for 0.7 per cent of global gross domestic product. In a few years, the financial effects should hardly be visible. Still, the adjustment will cause ructions.
Global reinsurers face big pay-outs (the shares have responded accordingly), but very preliminary estimates – $35bn of insurable losses and total rebuilding expense of $150bn-$200bn – suggest most of the cost will be borne within Japan. Households, companies, the government and central banks will find, borrow and create the funds.
The mix of sources matters for the currency market. The yen could rise if a big share of the money comes from liquidating some of the country’s vast stock of foreign assets – equivalent to 59 per cent of GDP in 2009, according to Moody’s. Alternatively, funding out of copious domestic savings should not move the yen. But if the authorities socialise the cost through money creation, persistent Japanese deflation could even give way to inflation – and the yen could fall.